Utah Real Estate Forecast 2026: Why the Market Feels Like It’s “Running in Place”
If you’ve been watching the Utah housing market and thinking, “Not much is changing, but nothing is crashing either,” you’re not alone. After the wild ride of 2020 through 2022, the market has shifted into something that feels a lot more like stability than a sprint.
Landin and Kenya from The Good Life podcast recently attended the Salt Lake Board of Realtors annual forecast breakfast, and the theme was clear: the market is running in place. Prices are holding steady, buyers are pickier, and sellers have to be more thoughtful to win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaS7ZKOFfRM
What the annual forecast breakfast reveals about Utah housing
Every year, the Salt Lake Board of Realtors hosts a forecast breakfast that pulls a lot of the real estate community into one room. The reason it matters is simple. The event brings in economists from around the country, along with local experts who track Utah closely, so agents and homeowners can separate real data from online noise.
One of the key local voices is Dr. Jim Woods from the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Institute. His career focus has been Utah real estate research and trends, which makes his perspective especially useful for anyone buying or selling along the Wasatch Front and into Utah County.
There was also a national economist speaking on behalf of the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That mix of national and Utah-specific context is helpful because it answers two questions people ask all the time:
What’s happening across the country?
What’s different about Utah, and even more specifically, places like Saratoga Springs?
The goal of attending an event like this is not to chase headlines. It’s to gather valuable information that can guide decisions throughout the year, whether you’re choosing when to list, planning a purchase, or just trying to understand what your home value is likely to do next.
Pricing in Utah: steady gains after the 2020 to 2022 surge
Pricing is the first thing most people want to talk about, and it’s where the “running in place” idea really shows up. The data shared at the forecast points to a market that has calmed down, not collapsed.
Utah saw about a 1.9% increase in the median sales price this year. That number matters because it pushes back on the common social media storyline that the market is crashing. The stats shared at the event do show some softening, but overall pricing is still trending up, just at a slower pace.
That slower pace makes more sense when you remember what happened right after COVID began. From 2020 to 2022, Utah experienced around a 40% increase in prices. That kind of jump is hard to wrap your brain around because it didn’t feel like normal annual appreciation. During that period, prices often seemed to rise month to month at what used to be a yearly rate.
So what now?
For the last three years, growth has been modest, around 2% a year. The forecast shared at the breakfast points toward more of the same, with about 1% to 2% growth expected in 2026. That’s where the phrase running in place fits. The market is moving, but it’s not racing ahead, and it’s not falling apart either.
A steadier pace may feel “slow” compared to the recent past. Still, compared to the chaos of the pandemic boom, steady can be a sign the market is catching its breath.
Saratoga Springs home prices: a bigger jump, and maybe a longer reset
Saratoga Springs didn’t just follow Utah’s trend during the COVID surge, it may have amplified it. With heavy development, rapid growth, and pricing that was more affordable than many Salt Lake County areas at the time, Saratoga Springs became a popular solution for buyers trying to get more home for their money.
During that 2020 to 2022 run-up, Saratoga Springs was one of the fastest-growing cities. Values here appeared to climb faster than some nearby areas, partly because demand rushed toward affordability, and partly because inventory has been tight for years.
One of the interesting ideas discussed at the forecast breakfast was a “what if” scenario. If the market had stayed on its historical growth path after 2020, the median home price would have needed more time to reach today’s level.
The example shared went like this:
The median was around $380,000
Under normal growth, it would be closer to $570,000 by around 2027
Instead, many areas are already in the $600s
That comparison highlights how much the COVID era pulled the market forward.
For Saratoga Springs, the question becomes: if the jump here was even bigger, does it take longer for the market to settle back into a more typical pattern? The discussion suggested we may stay in a steady growth mode for another 18 to 24 months, and possibly longer in places that surged harder. A range like 24 to 36 months was mentioned as a reasonable possibility before the market returns to something closer to historical growth rates (often talked about in the 5% to 6% range).
That’s not a bad thing. A slower period can give buyers time to choose well, and it can keep sellers from pricing based on unrealistic expectations from a different market.
Sales volume and inventory: fewer buyers, more choice, and a pickier market
Price is only one piece of the story. The other big takeaway from the forecast breakfast was volume, meaning how many homes are selling, how many buyers are active, and how many listings are available.
Right now, buyer demand is down, and sales volume is lower. Utah has hit about a 25-year low in sales per capita, which is a strong signal that fewer people are making moves.
Why fewer buyers are shopping today
Affordability is the obvious driver. Rates rose from the ultra-low era, and prices are still high compared to where they were a few years ago. That combination has made it harder for first-time buyers to get in.
One stat shared at the breakfast stood out: the average age of a first-time home buyer, which used to be in the high 20s to low 30s, is now close to 40 years old. That was discussed as a national statistic, and it was also noted that Utah is unique because it has a younger population overall. Even so, the pressure is still felt here, and the first-time buyer age trend is still moving up.
So where did those younger buyers go? Many are staying close, living in basements, sharing apartments with roommates, or finding other ways to wait out the cost of ownership until it makes sense.
There’s also less movement from existing homeowners. People are being more intentional, and when they do move, they’re moving with purpose.
Why homeowners aren’t rushing to sell
A major reason inventory doesn’t flood the market is the interest rate gap. Many homeowners locked in low rates and don’t want to trade them for today’s rates.
Two stats from the forecast breakfast paint that picture clearly:
Homeowner snapshotShare of homeownersInterest rate of 4% or lower60% to 70%No mortgage at all40%
When 40% of homeowners have no mortgage, and a large share have rates at 4% or below, there’s less pressure to move. People have equity, manageable payments, or both.
The discussion also referenced a national comparison on net worth that shows how big the gap has become: around $422,000 average net worth for homeowners versus $10,000 for renters. The national economist speaking at the event noted that the difference may be even larger in markets like Utah, where the average home price is around $600,000, well above the national average (shared as around $400,000).
Inventory is up, but it’s not a free-for-all
New listings are up about 10%. That sounds big, but the context matters. The point made at the breakfast was that listings are now closer to pre-COVID levels, and even back then, the story in Utah was the same: inventory was too low for a fast-growing state.
People were talking about limited inventory as far back as 2018. Utah’s population growth, family formation, and in-migration have kept demand strong over the long run, even when short-term volume dips.
What does that mean on the ground?
It’s not the intense seller’s market of 2020.
It’s also not a wide-open buyer’s market where nothing sells.
Buyers have more options, so they can be selective.
One stat captured the mixed feel of today’s market: about 20% of listings are still selling above list price. Multiple offers still happen, but they tend to happen on homes that check the right boxes.
The pattern is pretty consistent. Homes sell when they’re priced appropriately, presented well, and located in a neighborhood that fits what buyers want. Buyers are no longer grabbing anything they can get. They’re waiting for the right fit.
What this market rewards for buyers in 2026
For buyers who remember 2020 to 2022, today’s pace can feel almost unfamiliar. The urgency is gone. That’s one of the biggest benefits.
Prices are more stable, which means buying is less about trying to time a dip and more about making a smart, livable choice. Instead of feeling pressured to offer immediately, buyers can take a breath, look at options, and decide based on real needs.
A key planning point shared was simple: if you’re buying now, don’t expect to sell next year for a profit. That quick flip mindset doesn’t match today’s numbers. A better approach is to plan to stay put.
The guidance shared was to plan on five years in the home. That time horizon gives the purchase room to make sense, even in a slower growth period.
This is also a market that rewards preparation. Buyers who show up with clear priorities, strong financing, and a realistic plan have more room to negotiate. Not every deal will include concessions, but compared to the frenzy years, buyers often have more ability to ask for what they need, whether that is price adjustments, closing cost help, or other terms.
The bigger win is decision quality. You can walk through a home, think it over, sleep on it, and choose the next day, rather than writing an offer as you walk out the door. That shift alone changes the experience of buying.
What this market demands from sellers: pricing, presentation, and a real plan
Sellers can still do well in this market, but the path is narrower than it used to be. The forecast breakfast made this clear: the homes that win are the ones that come to market with strong positioning.
New construction is a bigger competitor than many sellers expect
One of the most surprising stats shared was that, for the first time in decades, new homes are more affordable than existing homes in some cases. That doesn’t mean new builds are “cheap.” It means builders have tools that many homeowners don’t.
Large national builders can offer incentives like:
Significant concessions
Rate buy-downs
Steadier pricing, even when resale sellers are aiming high
A builder can give 5% to 10% in concessions and treat it as a margin change. Most individual homeowners can’t or won’t do that.
So when a buyer tours your home, they might also be touring a brand-new, staged model home down the street. Buyers often buy based on emotion, and shiny new homes are built to play well emotionally.
That’s why presentation matters so much right now.
Selling today means “earn the yes”
In a slower, pickier market, sellers need to “up their game,” as it was put at the event. Overpricing can lead to sitting. Sitting can lead to price cuts. Price cuts can create doubt, even when nothing is actually wrong with the home.
Presentation is the other half. Buyers are comparing everything, and they notice details. The goal is not to pretend no one lives in the home, but to make it easy for a buyer to picture their own life there.
That means thinking about things like personal photos, clutter, pet items, and even strong scents. Small distractions can take away from the feeling a buyer gets when they walk in.
The good news for sellers is that the market is still paying fairly. Many homeowners who bought before 2020 are sitting on meaningful equity. Between equity levels, low rates, and the large share of owners with no mortgage at all, many sellers have flexibility in how they structure a move.
Another point emphasized was that panic selling doesn’t match the data. Big price drops usually come with major economic disruption. That’s not what the forecast pointed to for Utah. Job growth has slowed, but it hasn’t fallen, and job strength is one of the core signals tied to housing health.
Utah was even called out by the national economist as one of the hotter markets heading into 2026, which supports the idea that today’s steadier pace is more “reset” than “slide.”
Selling and buying in the same market can balance out
One practical reminder came through clearly: most sellers are also buyers.
So even if you feel like you’re giving up a little on the sale compared to the peak frenzy years, you may gain that back on the purchase side through a calmer process, more choices, and better terms. The key assumption is that you’re buying and selling in roughly the same market, which is true for many moves within Utah County and nearby areas.
Saratoga Springs in 2026: a steady market, and a good time for intentional moves
For Saratoga Springs, the “running in place” market can actually be a gift. When the pace slows, people make clearer decisions, and the right home matches matter more.
This area continues to draw attention for good reason. Saratoga Springs, along with nearby Lehi and Eagle Mountain, remains one of the fastest-growing parts of the state. People move here for lifestyle as much as price, including:
Lake and mountain views
Outdoor access and open space
Parks and trails
A strong family focus
Neighborhood growth and new development
In a market where buyers are being more strategic, local knowledge also matters more. The more selective buyers get, the more they care about the details that don’t show up in a listing photo, like schools, neighborhood feel, and how different parts of town live day to day.
A slower, healthier market doesn’t mean nothing happens. It means the best outcomes tend to go to people who plan ahead, know what they want, and make moves with purpose.
Conclusion: “Running in place” isn’t bad, it’s a chance to choose well
Utah’s real estate market isn’t flashing crash signals based on the data shared at the forecast breakfast. Prices are still inching upward, inventory has loosened compared to the tightest years, and buyers finally have room to be selective again. In Saratoga Springs, that steadier pace may last a bit longer, especially after the outsized run-up from 2020 to 2022.
For buyers, this market rewards patience and clarity. Instead of chasing short-term appreciation, the smarter play is choosing a home that fits real life and planning to stay long enough for the numbers to work. The pressure is lower, the decision quality is higher, and that’s a healthy shift.
For sellers, success is still very possible, but it’s earned. Pricing has to be honest, presentation has to be intentional, and expectations have to reflect today’s competition — especially with new construction offering incentives that resale homes can’t always match. The good news is that most long-term owners still have strong equity and flexibility.
As Landin and Kenya discussed after attending the forecast breakfast, a market that feels like it’s “running in place” isn’t a warning sign. It’s a reset. And resets tend to favor people who slow down, look clearly at the data, and make decisions with purpose.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or doing both in Saratoga Springs or anywhere along the Wasatch Front in 2026, this is the kind of market where strategy matters more than speed — and where good information can make all the difference.